Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.

Serious Obstacles in the Selection Process

Several members on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.