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Well. On one hand, Australia's long-running campaign to host the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to put on the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next fall.

That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed organizing the climate carnival could help speed up the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the bid to be approved. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the government have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the matters that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to collectively combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. The details of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

However, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no major power with the influence to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Some countries feared a conference obstructed from the leadership if his administration led the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to host an underprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was necessary. International frameworks is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the fight against global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can listen, build consensus and achieve an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the conference except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society is essential at environmental summits. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement appearing as the best chance possible to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.